Brignac homers as Rays beat Tribe

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2010 - Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Reid Brignac hit a three-run homer, as the Tampa Bay Rays earned a 4-2 decision over the Cleveland Indians in the rubber match of a three-game series at Progressive Field.

Carl Crawford also knocked in a run, while Willy Aybar and John Jaso each chipped in with a pair of hits and a run scored for Tampa Bay, which snapped its 18-game slide at Progressive Field on Saturday and has won four of six overall.

Wade Davis (8-9) picked up the win after tossing 6 1/3 effective innings. The right-hander, who allowed seven hits and two runs with one walk and four strikeouts, has won three straight decisions. Rafael Soriano locked the game down with a scoreless ninth to register his 26th save of the season.

"The first two innings was an uphill battle," Davis said. "Couldn't really find anything to go to throughout the whole game, but we played some great defense today and won the game."

Carlos Santana and Andy Marte each knocked in a run apiece for the Indians, who have dropped three of their last four after a six-game winning streak.

Justin Masterson (3-9) was tagged with the loss for yielding four runs -- three earned -- on five hits with a pair of walks and struck out five over 6 2/3 innings.

Santana's sacrifice fly in the first gave the Indians the early lead, but Tampa Bay answered with three in the second. Aybar worked a two-out walk and went to third on Jaso's single. Brignac then hit a three-run homer that just cleared the wall in right to put the Rays up 3-1.

"I look at it as a slider that forgot to slide," Masterson said about the pitch to Brignac. "It turned out to be a terrible cutter like 85 m.p.h."

Cleveland got a run back in the home half on Marte's fielder's choice RBI groundout. The Rays then restored their two-run lead in the fifth. Jason Bartlett started things by reaching on an error, stole second, advanced to third on a ground ball and crossed the plate on Crawford's sac fly.

Marte led off the seventh with a base hit, and after Michael Brantley bounced into a force out, Davis was replaced by Joaquin Benoit, who surrendered a base hit to Asdrubal Cabrera before retiring the next two hitters and keep the score 4-2.

Grant Balfour worked out of trouble in the eighth, getting pinch-hitter Shelley Duncan to fly out to leave runners at second and third. Soriano issued a two-out double to Shin-Soo Choo in the bottom of the ninth before getting Santana to fly out to center that ended the game.

Game Notes

Despite the loss, the Indians are still 7-3 since the All-Star break...Masterson is now winless in his last four starts...Cleveland went 1- for-10 with runners in scoring position ands stranded 11, while Tampa Bay finished 1-for-6 with RISP and left three.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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