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07/26/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With a penchant for highlight-reel goals and one of the most unique goal celebrations in the game, it's quite easy to see why Dwayne De Rosario has become such a household name in Major League Soccer. The Canadian's transformation into one of the league's best players, however, did have some winding turns along the path that has been his career.
At 19, De Rosario began his professional career playing for the Toronto Lynx in the A-League where his strong performances made club teams overseas take notice. After seeing limited time with German outfit FSV Zwickau, a return to North America was in the cards, one that would prove fruitful to both De Rosario and the MLS.
The sleek-footed winger began his time in the MLS with the San Jose Earthquakes in 2001 and made his mark in his very first season capturing MLS Cup MVP honors thanks to a game-winning goal in the MLS final. De Rosario blossomed in San Jose over the next few seasons, despite missing a large part of the 2003 campaign with a torn ACL.
In 2004, a fully recovered De Rosario led the Earthquakes to a second MLS Cup victory along with winning the Goal of the Year Award. While his championship accolades are impressive to behold, perhaps his biggest impact has come outside club play.
With the MLS desperately hoping to broaden its appeal, the concept of the all- star game pitting the best the MLS has to offer against a first division club from one of the major leagues began to take shape. While English side Fulham was a competent opponent in 2005, the true opportunity for MLS players to send a message on the world stage came in 2006.
Toyota Park in Chicago hosted the match-up between English League Champion Chelsea and the best the MLS had to offer. The game was fiercely contested, with De Rosario coming through in the 70th minute with a blistering shot that would prove the difference in the 1-0 encounter. The result was stunning and sent shockwaves throughout the soccer world - but for De Rosario, it was just another notch on the belt of one of the great clutch performers in MLS history.
De Rosario would prove the difference in the 2008 version as well, scoring the winning goal against English opponents West Ham United at BMO Field in Toronto. Coincidentally, the Dynamo star was shipped off to his hometown team, the Toronto FC later on that year.
The impact that De Rosario has had on the sport in Canada cannot be overlooked. His performances for both the Canadian National team and Toronto FC have been remarkable, with his flamboyance often coming to the forefront. With the ability to shoot accurately from long range along with above average technical ability, the Canadian star has become both the face of soccer in his country and the FC.
While his achievements at the national team level with Canada are scarce, the ability of De Rosario has never been questioned and he along with fellow Toronto FC member Julian De Guzman are usually the lone bright spots on a team that lacks cohesion and top-level talent at several positions. With the 2000 Gold Cup triumph being Canada's last major tournament win internationally, De Rosario is unlikely to win any such accolades with the current crop of Canadian team members, and will thus go his entire career without leading any team accomplishments at the international level.
However, the three-time Canadian player of the year has set the bar high both for incoming MLS players and those in the youth ranks trying to live up to his standards. At age 32, he has very little left to achieve at the club level but in a city starved for a winning franchise, the possibility of De Rosario leading the Toronto FC to a MLS championship would be a fitting end to a career already full of highlights.
<< Re-loaded Angels to begin series with Red Sox
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In danger of falling out of the race for the American
League West crown, the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim made a big and bold move
in acquiring ace pitcher Dan Haren on Sunday.
While it is unknown when Haren can contribut
<< Giants, Marlins ready for clash between scorching teams
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two of the hottest teams in baseball square off this
evening when the San Francisco Giants welcome the Florida Marlins to town for
the start of a four-game series at AT&T Park.
San Francisco has won four straight and 1
<< ChiSox seeking to get back on track at Mariners' expense
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A subpar road trip has tightened things atop the American
League Central for the first-place Chicago White Sox. A return home against a
favorable opponent could help the club get back on track.
Chicago seeks a fifth consec
<< Twins, Liriano aim to keep rolling in Kansas City
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins had everything working on Sunday as
they pulled even closer to the top spot in the American League Central.
They'll try to continue that tonight behind Francisco Liriano, who seeks a
third straight winn
Pettersson climbs 98 spots in world rankings >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carl Pettersson climbed 98 places in the
world rankings following his victory Sunday at the Canadian Open.
Pettersson, who was one putt from shooting a 59 on Saturday, rallied to beat
54-hole leader D
Altintop to give it "one more year" at Bayern >>
Munich, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bayern Munich midfielder Hamit Altintop has
admitted this could be his final season with the Bundesliga champions.
The Turkey international has found first-team opportunities hard to come by in
recent time
Report: Vick cleared by NFL >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NFL has reportedly cleared Michael
Vick to play after completing its investigation into the shooting that
occurred last month outside a restaurant celebrating his 30th birthday.
According t
Raul confirms exit from Real Madrid >>
Madrid, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Raul confirmed on Monday that he is leaving
Real Madrid after spending the last 16 years at the Bernabeu.
The 33-year-old striker is the all-time leading scorer in the club's history
with 323 goals in 740
Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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