Lava Man odds-on to win Oak Tree Mile

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/06/2007 - Arcadia, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Lava Man, the winner of six career turf races, is the 4-5 morning-line favorite for Sunday's $250,000 Oak Tree Mile at Santa Anita Park. The winner of the one mile grass race will gain automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Mile through the "Win and You're In" program.

Owned by STD Racing and Jason Wood, Lava Man will start from post two the six horse field. Corey Nakatani again will be in the saddle as the six- year-old tries to get back to the winner's circle.

Lava Man, trained by Doug O'Neill, was held out of last week's Goodwood Stakes which was won by Tiago. The gelding is coming off a sixth place finish the Pacific Classic at Del Mar, an event which he won 2006.

"I think we're going to need to see a real strong performance for us to think about going to New Jersey, and, you know, it's pretty obvious his record outside California's been pretty dismal," said O'Neill. "So for us even to think about putting him on a plane and heading towards New Jersey we're going to have to see a really solid performance, the way he's training and, you know, he's telling us that he's going to give us a solid performance. So we'll kind of wait and see."

Lava Man has won 17 of 41 career starts for better than $5.2 million, which makes him the richest active thoroughbred North America. This year he won the Sunshine Millions Turf along with the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup. Last year the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs he was a disappointing seventh.

Here is the complete field for the Oak Tree Mile post position order: Surf Cat, Alex Solis 9-5; Lava Man, Corey Nakatani 4-5; Out of Control, Michael Baze 6-1; Zann Aaron Gryder 15-1; Get Funky, Jose Valdivia, Jr. 10-1 and Courtnall, David Flores 15-1.

This year's Breeders' Cup World Thoroughbred Championships will be conducted on Friday and Saturday, October 26 and 27 at Monmouth Park.

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FOOTBALL BETTING : Crabtree's base deal: six years, $32 million

Football Betting

In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.

And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.

Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.

So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.

Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)

The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.

As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.

The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.

In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.

Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.

And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.

So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.

There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.

So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.

And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.

There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)

Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.

Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.

Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.

So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.

NFL Betting Lines

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