Royals welcome Orioles to Kansas City

Baseball Betting Lines

07/29/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A pair of last-place teams seeking to end lengthy losing streaks begin a four-game series tonight at Kansas City's Kauffman Stadium, where the slumping Royals hope to get well at the expense of the lowly Baltimore Orioles.

Baltimore enters this evening's clash having lost five consecutive games and owns the worst record in the majors at 31-70. The Orioles have been especially bad since the All-Star break, compiling an awful 2-11 mark to begin the second half.

The Orioles' three most recent defeats came on the road at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays, including a 5-0 setback in Wednesday's series finale. Baltimore mustered a mere three hits off rookie Brad Mills and three Jays relievers in suffering its 12th consecutive loss to Toronto this season.

"We've been through this all season against these guys," said Orioles manager Juan Samuel. "We gotta make better adjustments in games and try and get it done."

Baltimore's lack of offense spoiled a strong showing from starter Jeremy Guthrie (4-11), with the right-hander limiting the Blue Jays to one unearned run over seven innings in a hard-luck loss. Reliever Will Ohman gave up a three-run homer to Lyle Overbay as Toronto scored four times in the bottom of the eighth to break open the contest.

Kansas City will attempt to rebound from a forgettable last few days in which the club has lost four straight games and received atrocious pitching during the slide. The Royals allowed a whopping 42 runs over the first three defeats, then received another shaky performance out of Brian Bannister in yesterday's 6-4 loss to visiting Minnesota.

The Twins jumped out to a commanding 5-0 lead over the first four innings and held off a late Kansas City comeback attempt to complete a sweep of the three- game series.

"We gave them a [five] run lead and that helped their pitcher relax and do what he had to do," said Royals manager Ned Yost. "It just puts too much pressure on us when that happens."

Bannister (7-10) lost his fourth straight start after being tagged for five runs and 11 hits over the first six innings.

Yuniesky Betancourt and Willie Bloomquist had RBI singles during a two-run fifth inning for Kansas City, and Rick Ankiel pulled the Royals within 5-4 with a two-RBI base hit in the bottom of the eighth. Ankiel and Bloomquist each finished with a pair of hits in a losing cause.

Scott Podsednik went 2-for-5 in what turned out to be his final game in a Royals uniform. Kansas City traded the veteran outfielder to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a pair of minor-leaguers. Podsednik was batting .310 with 30 stolen bases and was riding a 15-game hitting streak at the time of the deal.

Although Royals pitchers have certainly had their problems as of late, the team has prevailed in each of Kyle Davies' last four starts and the inconsistent hurler has generally performed well over that stretch. The right- hander allowed seven runs over a combined 20 2/3 innings of work in recording three straight no-decisions to begin July, and enters tonight's test off his first victory in nearly two months.

Davies was reached for four runs and served up three homers in Saturday's matchup with the New York Yankees, but received a wealth of offensive support in Kansas City's 7-4 verdict over the defending world champions. He had not won in eight straight starts that followed a May 28 besting of Boston.

The 26-year-old hasn't won at home since April 26, though, and is just 1-4 with a 5.11 earned run average in eight trips to the Kauffman Stadium mound so far this season.

Davies will be attempting to duplicate a mid-May triumph over the Orioles in which he held tonight's opponent to two runs in six innings. He's 2-1 in four overall encounters with Baltimore, but has registered a poor 6.65 ERA over those games.

While Davies was able to end a lengthy winless drought his last time out, Baltimore's Brian Matusz has had trouble coming out on top all throughout his difficult 2009 campaign. The preseason Rookie of the Year candidate takes the hill tonight having lost 11 of 12 decisions since starting out the season with a pair of victories.

Matusz seemed to get back on track when he fired seven shutout innings to defeat Boston on July 4, but the highly-regarded lefty has gone 0-2 with a brutal 12.10 ERA in three starts since. He gave up three runs in five innings of a loss to Minnesota last Saturday, still a major improvement over a horrid 1 2/3-inning stint against Toronto in which the former first-round draft pick was shelled for six runs on five hits.

This will be the first career start against the Royals for Matusz, who's notched all three of his wins this season on the road.

These teams split a pair of meetings in Baltimore back in May, as well as a four-game series held at Kauffman Stadium last season.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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