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07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Chicago White Sox have been an awfully tough team to beat over the past two months, and the current American League Central leaders have been virtually invincible at U.S. Cellular Field during that time period.
Chicago will attempt to extend its home winning streak to 12 consecutive games when the Oakland Athletics invade the Windy City tonight for the first of three straight meetings between the teams.
The White Sox continued their home dominance with Thursday's 9-5 victory over Seattle, which completed a four-game sweep for Ozzie Guillen's club. Chicago is now an astounding 18-1 at U.S. Cellular Field since June 9, and the team's 11-game surge is its longest as the host since the White Sox ripped off 13 straight wins at Comiskey Park from July 1-August 5, 1989.
"We come in believing we can win that game tonight -- no matter who we're facing," said first baseman Paul Konerko. "We just got into a good groove a while back of just coming in and playing nine innings as hard as we can."
Chicago mashed its way to its latest triumph, as Ramon Castro belted two solo home runs as part of a 3-for-4 night and Konerko and Carlos Quentin had back- to-back blasts in the seventh inning to put the game out of reach. Juan Pierre added a two-run double for the White Sox, while Omar Vizquel went 3-for-4 and also knocked in a pair of runs in the win.
The offensive outburst helped Freddy Garcia (10-4) record his 10th win of the season, with the ex-Mariner giving up three runs on seven hits over the first six innings.
Thursday's win extended the White Sox' lead over second-place Minnesota to 1 1/2 games in the AL Central standings.
Dan Hudson will try to keep Chicago rolling when he takes the mound for tonight's series opener. The well-regarded rookie also seeks to avenge a loss to the Athletics in his last start, a 6-4 setback last Sunday in which the young right-hander was tagged for five runs and issued four walks in five innings.
However, there is a good chance Hudson does not even make this start, as he is rumored to be heading to Arizona for right-hander Edwin Jackson.
Hudson performed much better in his previous outing, holding Seattle's anemic offense to a run while striking out six batters over 6 2/3 innings on July 19 to record his second career major league win. He's still had his struggles since taking over for the injured Jake Peavy in the Chicago rotation, though, registering a 6.32 ERA in three starts and walking 11 batters in 15 2/3 innings of work.
The 23-year-old also had a rough go-around in a relief appearance against Oakland last September, with Hudson reached for two runs and five hits in a 2 1/3-inning stay.
The Athletics did take two of three bouts from the White Sox in Oakland this past weekend, but couldn't follow up with a road series win over AL West front-runner Texas. After the divisional foes split the first two games of the set, the Rangers claimed last night's rubber match by a 7-4 count.
Vin Mazzaro (6-3) had a string of four straight winning decisions halted after the A's starter was battered for seven runs and 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings.
"They have a really good lineup, and you almost want to be perfect," Mazzaro said of the Rangers. "I had a tough one [Thursday], so I'll bounce back and get ready for the next start."
Rajai Davis went 2-for-5 with an RBI single for Oakland, which has still won 10 of its last 14 contests despite Thursday's setback. Kevin Kouzmanoff and Matt Carson also finished with a pair of hits in the loss.
The Athletics have been successful at U.S. Cellular Field in the recent past, having prevailed in four of six matchups with the White Sox there last season. Oakland has also won seven of the past 11 overall tilts in the series.
Oakland plans to hand the ball to Brett Anderson for the oft-injured youngster's first major-league start since June 3. The talented left-hander has spent two stints on the disabled list and been limited to six starts this season due to elbow problems, but pronounced himself ready to go by striking out nine over 5 1/3 shutout innings in a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sacramento on Sunday.
When healthy, Anderson has been excellent for the A's this year. The 22-year- old has produced a 2.35 ERA over his six starts with the big club and hasn't allowed a home run in 30 2/3 innings, while walking only four batters during that stretch. He's yielded one run or fewer in four of those appearances.
In his only previous start at U.S. Cellular Field, Anderson spun seven shutout innings to defeat the White Sox during an 11-win rookie campaign in 2009.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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